Maç Tahmini: BIG - MIBR | Counter-Strike (CS2)

BIG will face MIBR in the next match of the ESL Pro League Season 16 group stage and compete for points that can help them reach the group stage. Before this meeting, both teams did not know victories in EPL #16, and for some this match will be the first winning one.

Experts from bookmakers think that this team will be the BIG team, which, in their opinion, has a 68% chance of winning, and the odds for their triumph is 67%. Let's analyze in order to understand how great their chances of winning really are and how it will be best to bet in this case.

Game form BIG

TabseN and his teammates are not in the best playing shape. The team, which occupies the 14th position in the top of the best CS:GO rosters in the world in the HLTV rating, has a series of 4 losses. The team not only lost in the fight against G2 Esports and Outsiders at ESL Pro League Season 16, but also performed unsuccessfully in the last championship, BLAST Premier Fall Groups 2022.

There, the roster in the last two matches could not beat Heroic and the same G2 Esports. I note the fact that during the match with G2 the latter had just changed their roster, changing two people in it, and therefore BIG had a good opportunity to pick up at least one card there, which they could not do.

The only ones that BIG managed to defeat there were Evil Geniuses, who are ranked 56th in the top by HLTV, and such a triumph can hardly be called solid.

Paying attention to the map pool of the BIG team, you involuntarily notice that it is not possible to mark any map on which they can play well. The team shows the best performance on Overpass, where the win rate is 50%, which, let's say, is not much.

History of recent BIG meetings

ESL Pro League Season 16

• BIG 0-2 G2 Esports
• BIG 0-2 Outsiders

BLAST Premier Fall Groups 2022

• BIG 0-2 G2 Esports
• BIG 14-16 Heroic
• BIG 16-6 Evil Geniuses
• BIG 13-16 Heroic

Best BIG Cards

• Overpass (6 cards) - 50%
• Dust 2 (11 cards) - 45.5%
• Mirage (7 cards) - 42.9%
• Inferno (3 cards) - 33.3%
• Vertigo (3 cards) - 33.3%
• Nuke (9 cards) - 22.2%
• Ancient (1 card) - 0%

MIBR uniform

The Brazilian roster, in turn, is in 30th place in the top from HLTV. Unlike BIG, although MIBR suffered 2 losses in the fight at ESL Pro League Season 16, however, in the fight against FaZe Clan, the strongest team in the world, HEN1 and his teammates managed to pick up one map, Dust 2.

In September, MIBR also took part in another event, CCT Central Europe Series 1. There, the roster did not suffer a single defeat and defeated absolutely all opponents, although it often gave away one card each.

It would be fair to note the performance of the Brazilians in the open qualifiers at IEM Road to Rio 2022 South America, where the roster won 3 out of 4 and took 1-2 place, which is quite good.

From all this, we conclude that the game form is better than what BIG can offer.

In addition, I am pleased with the team's approach to choosing maps and their performance there. They have a 100% win rate on Mirage, but only played one map. Dust 2 is another matter - the team has played there recently 10 times and won 7 victories, which makes this place for battles the best choice for MIBR. Considering that this card is in the top 2 of BIG, it can be assumed that they will take the risk of playing with their opponents on Dust 2.

Vertigo and Inferno along with Ancient also look good at 60%, 50% and 50% win rates. True, they played there 5, 4 and 4 times respectively, and Nuke and Overpass are not the place where MIBR feel good, as evidenced by a win rate of 40% with 5 played times.

MIBR match history

ESL Pro League Season 16

• MIBR 1-2 FaZe Clan
• MIBR 0-2 G2 Esports

CCT Central Europe Series 1

• MIBR 2-1 1win

MIBR 2-0 Esports Club Kyiv

• MIBR 2-1 Monte
• MIBR 2-1 Tricked Esport

IEM Road to Rio 2022 South America Open Qualifier 1

• MIBR 12-16 paiN Gaming
• MIBR 2-1 Fluxo
• MIBR 16-8 The Union
• MIBR 16-8 B4

Best MIBR cards

• Mirage (1 card) - 100%
• Dust 2 (10 cards) - 70%
• Vertigo (5 cards) - 60%
• Inferno (4 cards) - 50%
• Ancient (4 cards) - 50%
• Nuke (5 cards) - 40%
• Overpass (5 cards) - 40%

Conclusion

In one corner of the ring we see BIG who have the confidence of the audience in their victory, but they have shown a bad game lately and it is almost impossible to single out any map on which they perform well. In the other corner, we see MIBR, who are not really expected to win, however, the variety of cards in their pool could be more solid.

If we consider the option of the “Team Winning” bet, then this choice is too complicated, which I do not recommend doing. However, it seems to me that MIBR can win due to the above factors.

What I like the most is the alternative market Total over 2.5 cards played. First, as I said before, MIBR can compete with BIG on Dust 2 if they don't ban this map. If the list of played maps includes Vertigo or Ancient, where the Brazilians showed class, then it will be even better for HEN1 and his teammates.

Nevertheless, BIG will not give up without a fight and will most likely take one card at the performance.

Particularly risky players can bet on Correct Score 2-1 in favor of MIBR with odds of 4.65, but I would still recommend Total over 2.5 cards with odds of 2.00, which looks quite juicy and attractive.

Final bet: Total over 2.5 cards with odds of 2.00