The match between Natus Vincere and Team Spirit in IEM Krakow 2026 Stage 2 will be a crucial one in the fight for the playoffs and leaves no room for error. For both teams, this is not just another best-of-three series, but a real test of their readiness for the decisive stage of the tournament. Considering the differing dynamics in recent results, roster changes on Spirit’s side, and contrasting approaches to the map pool, this matchup promises to be tense and tactically rich—where both individual performances and thorough series preparation could prove decisive.
Bookmakers’ View: Spirit Are the Favorites
Ahead of the match, bookmakers clearly lean toward Team Spirit. The average odds for a Spirit victory sit at 1.47, reflecting both their stronger current form and a positive balance in key statistics and head-to-head results. Meanwhile, Natus Vincere are priced much more cautiously, with average odds of 2.52 for their win. This suggests that NAVI are seen more as underdogs capable of putting up a fight, rather than favorites to take the series.
Overall, the odds line points to a difficult, potentially three-map battle, in which Spirit have the better chance to advance—but any mistake could drastically change the course of the series.
NAVI’s Current Form: What to Expect from Natus Vincere
Over the past three months, NAVI have played 29 maps, winning 16 of them—a solid but far from dominant result for a team of this caliber. The last month is particularly concerning: at BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 1, the team finished in the 17–32 range, which clearly falls short of the ambitions of the “Born to Win” organization.
- NAVI roster: b1t, Aleksib, iM, w0nderful, makazze
That said, over a shorter stretch NAVI look more convincing. In their last five matches, they secured three wins against PARIVISION, FURIA, and B8, while losing only to Monte and FaZe. This indicates relative stability, but also highlights issues against opponents with strong map control and disciplined play.
Team Spirit’s Current Form: What to Expect from Spirit
Over the same period, Team Spirit look slightly more convincing statistically. In three months, they have played 35 maps and won 21, indicating better overall form and more extensive practice at the tier-1 / tier-1.5 level.
- Spirit roster: magixx, zont1x, donk, sh1ro, tN1R
At BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 1 Finals, Spirit finished 5–8th, which can be considered a solid result. In their last five matches, they also recorded three wins—against Astralis, Inner Circle, and SINNERS—but suffered losses to PARIVISION and Vitality. Overall, Spirit appear more composed, though they occasionally struggle against highly aggressive opponents.
NAVI Map Pool
NAVI are almost certain to start the series by banning Overpass, their most frequent permanent ban, and there is little reason to change this approach specifically against Spirit. When it comes to map picks, NAVI have several strong options: Mirage and Ancient, both with an 80% win rate, look the most logical. Given Spirit’s weaker Mirage, this is the map NAVI are most likely to pick. After that, NAVI will probably ban Inferno or Anubis to limit Spirit’s comfort before the decider.
Spirit Map Pool
Team Spirit, in turn, are almost guaranteed to ban Inferno, which is their standard first ban. With Overpass already removed by NAVI, Spirit will focus on choosing between Ancient and Dust2. Considering Spirit’s high win rate on Ancient (71%) and NAVI’s confidence on that map, a more pragmatic choice would be Dust2, where Spirit are stable and NAVI have a more modest 67% win rate. Spirit’s second ban will likely target Nuke, to avoid unconventional scenarios. In this scenario, Ancient appears to be the most realistic decider map.
Head-to-Head Record
Over the past six months, NAVI and Spirit have faced each other only once—at IEM Cologne 2025. That series ended in a 2–1 victory for Spirit:
- Mirage — 13:11 (Spirit)
- Nuke — 13:9 (NAVI)
- Ancient — 13:6 (Spirit)
That match showed Spirit’s superior ability to adapt as the series progressed, especially on the deciding maps, while NAVI struggled to maintain control in prolonged best-of-three series.
Match Prediction: NAVI vs Team Spirit — IEM Krakow 2026
The playoff-deciding match in IEM Krakow 2026 Stage 2 has all the ingredients to become one of the most intense clashes of the stage. Natus Vincere look competitive thanks to a strong Mirage and their ability to dictate tempo in best-of-three series, but their inconsistency in key moments and underwhelming recent tournament results raise concerns.
Team Spirit enter the match as favorites not only based on form, but also roster depth. The return of zont1x and magixx has added flexibility and depth, particularly in mid-round situations. At the same time, Spirit still rely heavily on the individual brilliance of donk, who has posted a phenomenal 1.37 rating over the last three months and is often the decisive factor in their wins. For comparison, magixx holds a 1.10 rating, while zont1x sits at just 0.94, which could become a vulnerability against NAVI’s aggressive style.
Bookmakers reinforce Spirit’s favorite status: the average odds for a Spirit win are 1.47, while NAVI are offered at around 2.52. This line reflects Spirit’s overall edge in form and roster strength, while still leaving room for a potential upset.
Prediction: Spirit to win 2–1.
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