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We continue our review of the third round of DPC 2023 in Western Europe with a betting contest between Team Liquid and Team Secret. In WEU it's rare to see a passing match, and even more so when old friends are playing.
The match between Secret and Liquid The International is interesting not so much from a sporting point of view, but not without that, and storilinear. Liquid and Secret are old rivals, the Liquid did not let the Liquid into the Grand Final of The International 2022 and it seems that the Liquid want to return the favour.
In fact, they already paid back several times, so much so that Secret had to play in the second division. By the way, they are now back in the first division, and that's another reason to watch the game.
Let's try to analyze who will be stronger in this match, whether Secret can get the first victory and very important points for potential passage to the majors, where Secret haven't been for a long time, or Liquid will "wake up" and start to show the best European team level of Dot.
Let's go.
Team Liquid's form
Let's start analyzing the match with analysis of Team Liquid's form. They are the odds-on favorite, and that's what happens when you win the DPC league twice.
The odds on Liquid's victory are estimated at around 1.4. Again, the status is clear, Liquid has long been a contender for the world championship, and they won it in the region last season and the season before that.
Team Liquid have won two DPC rounds. They didn't lose a match in the first and one in the second. However, that is not the only thing remarkable about the team.
Apart from the regional league, which, let's face it, is often perceived as secondary, Liquid showed their level of play on the international stage, and a very high level, it is important to note. The team was twice in the top-2 at major tournaments (The Lima Major and ESL One Berlin Major 2023) and was also in the top-2 at DreamLeague Season 19.
- Team Liquid roster: miCKe, Nisha, zai, GH (?), insania .
Given the above examples of Liquid's results, they are one of the main contenders to win the third round. However, Long Corner has not yet set itself up.
First, they played with substitutions and will probably do so in the next match as well. Boxi got tired, he was temporarily substituted by GH and from the first game of the 3rd round it was clear that the stand-in was not so good.
Liquid lost to Entity (0-2) without a chance and that's not what you want to see from the possible future champion of the third round. There is time to rectify the situation, but is it necessary? Liquid are already at The International 2023, and when you remember their toughest schedule until DPC 2023: Tour 3, perhaps the draw itself makes sense to rest?
Team Liquid's most popular heroes
The team took Chen four times (75% win rate). The Enchantress and Disruptor have a perfect win rate with 3 appearances, and Pangolier, Underlord and Shadow Fiend have a slightly worse rate with 2 wins out of 3.
The successful characters include Necrophos, Beastmaster, Undying, Monkey King, Rubick, Sven and Ember. All of them appeared in spades 2 times each and won both matches.
Truth be told, you can already draw conclusions on the outcome of the match, but let's leave some room to maneuver and speculate on Entity's prospects.
In the third round, the DPC made some outright experiments. Dawnbreaker came in at number one "specifically" and if Liquid want to win, they must come up with a more stable and workable strategy.
Team Secret form
Let's continue the parsing of the match with an analysis of Team Secret's form. In this match they will play in the status of the outsider and as if it could be otherwise.
The odds of a Secret win in this match exceed the mark of 4. Such a figure is not surprising, given the recent performance of the "Secret".
After The International 2022, the team literally collapsed. Nisha's departure from the squad had an impact, because as soon as the Pole changed teams, Secret flew to the bottom division.
The rebuilding process for Secret took a long time, but the result was worth it. Secret made it back to the first league, 6-1 in the second division.
- Team Secret line-up: Crystallis, BOOM, yamich, Puppey.
Frankly, this line-up raises a lot of scepticism. I'm not sure that such different players can get along under one roof. Yes, they have gone through a period of adaptation and kind of adjusted their game, after all, they entered the first division, but, to be fair, the competition in the second league is not great to say the least.
What saves Secret are the possible re-signings in the Liquid line-up. If the Liquid play with substitutes again, and even if they do it the way they did against Entity, the Secret team could be shut down.
The most popular heroes of Team Secret
Among the most chosen heroes of Secret are Mirana, Tusk and Primal Beast. All have 6 matches and 83% of wins.
In addition Monkey King and Ember Spirit appeared in spades (5 games and 100% wins each). Death Prophet also played 5 matches, however she won 4 matches.
Also took Jakiro (3 matches, 100% wins), Enchantress (3 matches, 100% wins). Abaddon (2 matches, 66% wins), Broodmother (2 matches, 100% wins).
The problem of Secret is the lack of experience of playing on patch 7.33. However, Liquid has too much experience and they simply burn out.
History of personal matches between Team Secret and Team Liquid
The last time the teams played in the first round of the DPC. That time Team Liquid clinched the victory.
Result of the match
If it had been the previous season, I would have called Team Secret the winner of the series without a second thought. Not much has changed now, but the changes were critical. Liquid were selected for The International 2023, so this season is virtually meaningless for them. The main thing is to retain their slot.
I hint that Liquid might not win. However, it's still hard to believe that, but the card taken by Secret is believable.
Bottom line: +1.5 on Secret.
